VisitBritain

2026 inbound tourism forecast

The annual VisitBritain forecast for the volume and value of inbound tourism to the UK is issued around the turn of the year. It is revised after the final official inbound statistics are released for the previous year.

Released on:

5 February 2026

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Summary

2026 forecast

  • VisitBritain forecasts 45.5 million inbound visits in 2026, with these visitors spending £35.7 billion.
  • Compared to 2025, this represents growth of 4% in visits and 7% in nominal spend (5% spending growth in real terms).
  • This would be 105% and 126% of the 2019 levels respectively, although spend still only 96% of the 2019 level when you adjust for inflation.
  • European markets are forecast to grow by 4% in volume terms and 6% in value terms. Long haul markets are forecast to grow by 5% in volume terms and 8% in value terms.

2025 estimate

  • VisitBritain estimates 43.6 million inbound visits in 2025, with these visitors spending £33.4 billion.
  • Compared to 2024, this represents growth of 2% in visits and 3% in nominal spending (spending 1% down in real terms). VisitBritain estimates that visits and spending are 101% and 117% of the 2019 levels respectively, although spending is 91% of the 2019 level when you adjust for inflation.

Summary of 2026 forecast:

Overview: a moderate pickup in growth of visits to 4%; spend growth of 7%. Long haul markets to resume growth, and forecast to grow slightly faster than Europe. Some uncertainty about global economic prospects and considerable uncertainty about geopolitical factors. 

After a sluggish year from long haul, a return to growth is assumed for 2026. This is partly due to economic prospects generally being brighter for these markets than for Europe, and also a reflection of the pattern that is often seen at the aggregate level of a slow year being followed by growth the next year.

Risks: Flight bookings in the short term look mixed. At time of forecast, for January they were 4% up, February 3% down, and for March/April around on par (March down and April up due to Easter timing). These somewhat soft numbers have been factored in, although maturity of bookings in the available data is still low for most months as we head to the key booking period. Looking broader, downside risks include non-economic (geopolitical, security, epidemiological) and economic (e.g. impact of US tariffs). An upside risk is if the UK is able to maintain or gain competitive share, which would imply a higher forecast. Indeterminate risks include climatic (adverse weather; or UK as a more attractive proposition in summer), reputational factors, performance of competitors; also uncertainty about the UK and global economies.

Economic context: The global economy is forecast to grow by a modest 2.7% this year, just below the 2.9% estimated for 2025. The US is forecast to grow 2.5%; the EU 1.1%. Inflation and interest rates are generally coming down, easing pressure on household finances. Uncertainty about drivers such as oil price and trade conditions. The pound is forecast to fall 3% this year, which has been factored in. As ever, this is the central forecast and there are plausible outcomes and risks either side.

Data comparability: The Office for National Statistics made some changes to the methodology of the International Passenger survey in 2024. More details can be found on the ONS website. VisitBritain’s estimate for 2025 and forecast for 2026 are designed to be comparable to the 2024 IPS numbers. Estimations of changes vs 2019 are VisitBritain’s modelling to enable comparison with previous years; the ONS are not endorsing comparisons with previous years. 

Next update: VisitBritain will revise its 2025 estimate and 2026 forecast in mid-2026.

Summary and methodology for 2025 estimate:

  • Due to methodological changes, we are unable to use the official inbound statistics from the International Passenger Survey to compare year-on-year with 2024 or previous years, so have had to use a variety of alternative data sources. We have access to high level Home Office data on border admissions by non-UK nationals (available to September at time of forecast), ForwardKeys / Amadeus flight data by country, and Visa card spending data by country.
  • Looking across data sources, our 2025 estimate shows weak growth in visits in Q1 and Q2 (up 1% in each), rising to 3% in Q3 but a stronger end to the year with 5% growth in Q4.
  • Visits from Europe are estimated to be 4% up on 2024; for long haul markets, 1% below. Long haul markets had been quicker to recover volumes from COVID (especially USA) but appear to have plateaued recently.
  • Spending is estimated to be up by 3%, fractionally ahead of visits growth. Spend per visit was therefore flat, although with inflation at 3.4% for the year overall spend per visit showed a decline in real terms. This was due to a few factors. Length of stay fell; inflation in tourism-related categories ran lower than general inflation (after some years when the reverse was true); and there was a market composition effect, with long haul markets slower and visits from Europe up.
  • Regions/nations data is currently available for the first three quarters of the year from Visa, and shows spend in Scotland up 6% and Wales 4%, whereas London and England overall were both 2% up.
  • Looking at journey purpose, after a few very strong years for visits to friends and relatives, flight data journey purpose proxies suggest that holiday visits outperformed VFR, with business trips around flat.
  • This estimate implies a slight loss in competitive share; inbound arrivals to Western Europe are estimated to have grown by 4% and globally 5% in 2025 (source: Oxford Economics).